CONTEXT OF THE NEWS
India is likely to witness a below-normal Southwest Monsoon in 2026 amid the emergence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meteorologists have drawn comparisons with the Great Famine of 1876–78, which was linked to a strong El Niño event and widespread monsoon failure.
BACKGROUND
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
It is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
It consists of:
| Phase | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| El Niño | Warmer Pacific waters |
| Neutral | Normal conditions |
| La Niña | Cooler Pacific waters |
Historical Connection
A powerful El Niño event contributed significantly to the Great Famine of 1876–78, one of the deadliest famines in Indian history.
Estimated deaths:
| Region | Estimated Impact |
| Colonial India | 55 lakh–82 lakh deaths |
| Nizam’s Dominions | More than 60,000 deaths |
The famine highlighted the importance of traditional water conservation systems such as tanks and reservoirs.
NEWS BREAKDOWN
What is Happening in 2026?
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
- 82% probability of El Niño developing during May–July 2026.
- 96% probability of continuation during winter 2026–27.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD):
- Southwest Monsoon rainfall is projected at 92% of Long Period Average (LPA).
- This falls under the “Below Normal” category.
What is Long Period Average (LPA)?
LPA is the average rainfall received over a 50-year period and serves as a benchmark for monsoon assessment.
How Does El Niño Work?
Normal Conditions
- Strong trade winds blow from east to west.
- Warm ocean water accumulates near Asia and Australia.
- Cold nutrient-rich water rises near South America through upwelling.
During El Niño
- Trade winds weaken or reverse.
- Warm water shifts eastward.
- Upwelling decreases.
- Global atmospheric circulation changes.
As a result, India often experiences:
- Weak monsoon
- Higher temperatures
- Drought conditions
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF EL NIÑO FOR INDIA
1. Monsoon Deficit
Nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall comes from the Southwest Monsoon.
A weak monsoon affects:
- Agriculture
- Reservoir storage
- Groundwater recharge
- Drinking water availability
2. Agricultural Shock
Crop Failure
About 50% of India’s net sown area remains rain-fed.
Major Kharif crops affected:
- Rice
- Cotton
- Soybean
- Pulses
Lower rainfall results in:
- Delayed sowing
- Reduced productivity
- Lower yields
Rising Input Costs
Farmers increasingly depend on groundwater extraction.
This increases:
- Diesel consumption
- Electricity usage
- Irrigation expenditure
Income Erosion
The combination of:
- Lower output
- Higher costs
reduces farm profitability and intensifies rural distress.
3. Food Inflation
Definition
Food Inflation refers to the increase in prices of food commodities over time.
Impact
Reduced agricultural output creates a supply shortage.
Prices rise sharply for:
- Cereals
- Vegetables
- Pulses
Impact on Households
Food constitutes a major component of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).
High food prices:
- Reduce purchasing power
- Lower household savings
- Decrease discretionary spending
4. Heat Economy and Productivity Loss
Productivity Tax
A large section of India’s workforce operates outdoors.
Examples:
- Construction workers
- Delivery workers
- Street vendors
- Agricultural labourers
Heat stress leads to:
- Lower efficiency
- Reduced work hours
- Income loss
Important Data
According to the International Labour Organization (ILO):
A 1.5°C increase in global temperature may result in:
- Loss of 2.2% of global working hours
- Equivalent to nearly 80 million full-time jobs by 2030
5. Urban Heat Island Effect
Definition
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect refers to urban areas becoming significantly hotter than surrounding rural regions due to excessive concrete structures and reduced vegetation.
Causes
- Rapid urbanization
- Loss of green cover
- Concrete surfaces
- Asphalt roads
Consequences
- Higher cooling demand
- Increased electricity consumption
- Public health risks
6. Growing Inequality
Asymmetrical Adaptive Capacity
Wealthier households can access:
- Air conditioners
- Reliable water supply
- Better housing
Poorer households often face:
- Water scarcity
- Heat exposure
- Loss of livelihood
This widens socio-economic inequality.
7. RBI’s Macroeconomic Challenge
Stagflation Threat
Stagflation is a condition where:
- Inflation remains high
- Economic growth slows
- Employment weakens
Policy Dilemma
| Challenge | Impact |
| High Inflation | RBI may raise interest rates |
| Higher Interest Rates | Reduced investment |
| Lower Investment | Slower economic growth |
India’s FY27 growth could slow to approximately 6.5% if climate disruptions intensify.
GREAT FAMINE OF 1876–78: LESSONS FOR TODAY
Key Facts
- Triggered by repeated monsoon failures.
- Linked to a strong multi-year El Niño event.
- One of the deadliest famines in Indian history.
Why Telangana Performed Better?
The region possessed a vast network of traditional tanks.
Benefits:
- Drinking water security
- Drought resilience
- Famine relief works
This demonstrates the importance of decentralized water management.
STRATEGIC MEASURES FOR INDIA
Contingency Crop Planning
Implement District Agriculture Contingency Plans (DACPs).
Promote:
- Millets (Shree Anna)
- Pulses
- Oilseeds
- Drought-resistant crops
Reduce dependence on:
- Paddy
- Sugarcane
Precision Irrigation
Expand micro-irrigation under:
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY)
Component:
Per Drop More Crop
Benefits:
- Water efficiency
- Higher productivity
- Reduced irrigation costs
Decentralized Water Governance
Promote restoration of traditional water systems through:
- Mission Amrit Sarovar
- Mission Kakatiya
Benefits:
- Groundwater recharge
- Local water security
- Climate resilience
Strengthening Heat Action Plans
Heat Action Plans (HAPs)
Measures include:
- Modified work schedules
- Shaded workplaces
- Drinking water facilities
- Heat insurance mechanisms
Urban Climate Adaptation
Cool Roof Programmes
Reduce indoor temperatures through reflective roofing materials.
Blue-Green Infrastructure
Includes:
- Urban wetlands
- Lakes
- Tree cover
- Green corridors
Benefits:
- Reduced UHI effect
- Better groundwater recharge
- Improved urban resilience
Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA)
Definition
Using natural ecosystems to reduce climate vulnerability.
Examples:
- Wetland restoration
- Afforestation
- Urban forestry
- Watershed management
PRELIMS FOCUS
Important Facts
- El Niño means “The Little Boy” in Spanish.
- El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO.
- La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO.
- Around 70% of India’s annual rainfall comes from the Southwest Monsoon.
- LPA (Long Period Average) is calculated using a 50-year rainfall average.
- Urban Heat Island Effect is caused by excessive concretization and reduced vegetation.
- PMKSY promotes efficient irrigation through the Per Drop More Crop component.
- Mission Kakatiya is a flagship tank restoration programme of Telangana.
- The Great Famine of 1876–78 was associated with strong El Niño conditions.
- NOAA forecasts an 82% probability of El Niño emergence in 2026.
CONCLUSION
India must strengthen climate-resilient agriculture, water conservation, and heat adaptation systems to reduce economic vulnerability arising from recurring El Niño events.
PRELIMS CHECK
Question 1
With reference to El Niño, consider the following statements:
- It is associated with abnormal warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- It generally strengthens the Indian Southwest Monsoon.
- It is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3
Question 2
Consider the following initiatives:
- Mission Kakatiya
- Mission Amrit Sarovar
- Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
Which of the above contribute directly to strengthening climate resilience against drought conditions?
(a) 1 and 2 only
(b) 2 and 3 only
(c) 1 and 3 only
(d) 1, 2 and 3
Question 3
Consider the following statements:
Statement-I:
Stagflation refers to a situation of high inflation accompanied by slow economic growth.
Statement-II:
Raising interest rates to control inflation may further reduce investment and economic activity.
Which one of the following is correct?
(a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
(b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I
(c) Statement-I is correct but Statement-II is incorrect
(d) Statement-I is incorrect but Statement-II is correct
ANSWERS
Answer 1: (c)
Explanation:
- El Niño involves abnormal warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- It generally weakens rather than strengthens the Indian monsoon.
- It is the warm phase of ENSO.
Answer 2: (d)
Explanation:
- Mission Kakatiya restores traditional tanks.
- Mission Amrit Sarovar promotes water conservation.
- PMKSY improves irrigation efficiency and drought resilience.
Answer 3: (a)
Explanation:
- Stagflation combines inflation with slow economic growth.
- Higher interest rates reduce borrowing and investment.
- This policy dilemma is a key characteristic of stagflation.
“Every climate challenge is also an opportunity to build a stronger, more resilient nation for future generations.”
